Long-term transition of China’s power sector under carbon neutrality target and water withdrawal constraint

Journal of Cleaner Production

paper
poster
Low cost renewables reduced the need for CCS by 80%, and water constraints nearly squeeze CCS out.
Authors

Chao Zhang

Gang He

Josiah Johnston

Lijin Zhong

Published

December 20, 2021

Paper

Long-term transition of China’s power sector under carbon neutrality target and water withdrawal constraint
Chao Zhang, Gang He*, Josiah Johnston, and Lijin Zhong
Journal of Cleaner Production (2021)
DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.129765

Abstract

Deep carbon mitigation and water resources conservation are two interacted environmental challenges that China’s power sector is facing. We investigate long-term transition pathways (2020–2050) of China’s power sector under carbon neutrality target and water withdrawal constraint using an integrated capacity expansion and dispatch model: SWITCH-China. We find that achieving carbon neutrality before 2060 under moderate cost decline of renewables by 10–20% depends heavily on large scale deployment of coal-fired power generation with carbon capture and storage (CCS) since 2035 in China’s water-deficient northwestern regions, which may incur significant water penalties in arid catchments. Introducing water withdrawal constraints at the secondary river basin level can reduce the reliance on coal-CCS power generation to achieve carbon neutrality, promote the application of air-cooling technology, and reallocate newly built coal power capacities from northwestern regions to northeastern and southern regions. If levelized cost of renewables can decline rapidly by about 70%, demand for coal power generation with CCS will be significantly reduced by more than 80% and solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind could account for about 70% of the national total power generation by 2050. The transition pathway under low-cost renewables also creates water conservation co-benefits of around 10 billion m3 annually compared to the reference scenario.

Poster

Twitter Thread

Citation

BibTeX citation:
@article{zhang2021,
  author = {Zhang, Chao and He, Gang and Johnston, Josiah and Zhong,
    Lijin},
  title = {Long-Term Transition of {China’s} Power Sector Under Carbon
    Neutrality Target and Water Withdrawal Constraint},
  journal = {Journal of Cleaner Production},
  volume = {329},
  pages = {129765},
  date = {2021-12-20},
  url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095965262103941X},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.129765},
  langid = {en}
}
For attribution, please cite this work as:
Zhang, Chao, Gang He, Josiah Johnston, and Lijin Zhong. 2021. “Long-Term Transition of China’s Power Sector Under Carbon Neutrality Target and Water Withdrawal Constraint.” Journal of Cleaner Production 329 (December): 129765. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.129765.