SWITCH-China: A Systems Approach to Decarbonizing China’s Power System
SWITCH-China: A Systems Approach to Decarbonizing China’s Power System
Gang He*, Anne-Perrine Avrin, James H. Nelson, Josiah Johnston, Ana Mileva, Jianwei Tian, and Daniel M. Kammen*
Enironmental Science and Technology (2016)
DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.6b01345
Abstract
We present an integrated model, SWITCH-China, of the Chinese power sector with which to analyze the economic and technological implications of a medium to long-term decarbonization scenario while accounting for very-short-term renewable variability. On the basis of the model and assumptions used, we find that the announced 2030 carbon peak can be achieved with a carbon price of ∼$40/tCO2. Current trends in renewable energy price reductions alone are insufficient to replace coal; however, an 80% carbon emission reduction by 2050 is achievable in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Target Scenario with an optimal electricity mix in 2050 including nuclear (14%), wind (23%), solar (27%), hydro (6%), gas (1%), coal (3%), and carbon capture and sequestration coal energy (26%). The co-benefits of carbon-price strategy would offset 22% to 42% of the increased electricity costs if the true cost of coal and the social cost of carbon are incorporated. In such a scenario, aggressive attention to research and both technological and financial innovation mechanisms are crucial to enabling the transition at a reasonable cost, along with strong carbon policies.
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Citation
@article{he2016,
author = {He, Gang and Avrin, Anne-Perrine and H. Nelson, James and
Johnston, Josiah and Mileva, Ana and Tian, Jianwei and M. Kammen,
Daniel},
title = {SWITCH-China: {A} {Systems} {Approach} to {Decarbonizing}
{China’s} {Power} {System}},
journal = {Enironmental Science and Technology},
volume = {50},
number = {11},
pages = {5467-5473},
date = {2016-05-08},
url = {https://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/acs.est.6b01345},
doi = {10.1021/acs.est.6b01345},
langid = {en}
}