SWITCH-China: Modeling the Transition of the World’s Largest Power Sector

Gang He

November 13, 2023

China’s power sector

  • ~ 1/4 of global coal consumption
  • ~ 40% of global solar/wind capacity
  • ~ 1/8 of global carbon emission
  • A sector under fast transition
  • Its future with high uncertainties

Challenges

  • High spatial temporal resolution model
  • Data
    • Availability
    • Accessiblity
    • Credability
  • Transparency
  • Comparison

SWITCH-China

Source: He et al. (2016)

SWITCH-China model structure

Learn more: https://www.ganghe.net/research/switch-china-model

Data

  • Generation
    • Technology: solar, wind, hydro, nuclear, coal, gas
    • Wind/solar resources profiles
  • Transmission: planned the UHV lines
  • Demand: future demand projections
  • Load: provincial typical load profiles
  • Costs
    • Capital costs
    • Fuel costs
    • Carbon costs
    • Transmission costs
  • Policy
    • Development targets
    • Carbon neutrality goals
    • Environmental targets

China modules

Adapt to China’s energy policies and priorities

  • Plans: Technological goals and limits
    • Wind/Solar/Offshore wind plans
    • Coal limits
  • Energy water nexus / Multiple sectors
    • Electricity-Carbon-Water
  • Emerging technologies
    • Storage
    • Pumped hydro
    • Offshore wind
    • Hydrogen

Low cost of renewables

Source: He, Lin, Sifuentes, et al. (2020)

Source: He, Lin, Sifuentes, et al. (2020)

Water implications

Source: Zhang et al. (2021)

Source: Zhang et al. (2021)

Where to place storage

Source: Peng et al. (2023)

What SWITCH-China can do?

  • Power transition technology pathways
    • Capacity mix
    • Generation mix
    • Impact of costs and technologies
    • Impact to carbon emission and pollution
    • Impact of policy and regulations

What SWITCH-China can do with other models?

  • Transport model, e.g. Li et al. (2022)
  • Building model
  • Air quality/human health model, e.g. Luo, Garcia-Menendez, Yang, et al. (2023), Luo, Garcia-Menendez, Lin, et al. (2023)
  • Input output model
  • Social economic model

Want to try?

Visit: https://github.com/switch-model/switch-china-open-model

How to contribute?

  • Star our repository
  • Spread a word
  • Share organized PUBLIC data
  • Welcome collaboration
  • Join our team

Acknowledgments

  • SWITCH/EDF and EDF-China team (Matthias Fripp, Oleg Lugovoy, Suzi Kerr, and Ji Gao, Keyang Xue, Gray Zhuoran Li, and others)
  • UCB and RAEL: Daniel Kammen, Anne-Perrine Avrin, Jianwei Tian, James Nelson, Josiah Johnston, Ana Mileva, Bo Li, Patricia Hidalgo-Gonzalez, Juan Pablo Carvallo
  • Gridpath: Qian Luo, Haozhe Yang, Ana Mileva, and Ranjit Deshmukh
  • Collaborators: Chao Zhang, Jiang Lin, Amol Phadke, Liqun Peng, Denise Mauzerall, Desmond Zhong, Wenjia Cai, Yu Chen, Yuang Chen, Shiyu Huang, Jingxuan Hui, Haoran Li, Xu Liu, Hongyou Lu, Xiao Su, Yang Wang, Zheng Wang, Kate Yu, Shuyu Yang, Jiahai Yuan, Wenhua Zhang, Hongyang Zou, and many more
  • Thank you all for your help and support

My research in a mindmap

Source: He, Lin, Sifuentes, et al. (2020), Zhang et al. (2021), He, Lin, Zhang, et al. (2020), Helveston, He, and Davidson (2022), Li et al. (2022), read more

Energy Systems Analysis open course

15 Lectures:
- 1: Introduction
- 2: Make sense of energy numbers
- 3: Energy systems overview
- 4: Economics for energy systems analysis
- 5: Energy sources
- 6: Energy demand
- 7: Energy, environment, and health
- 8: Energy and climate change
- 9: Power sector analysis
- 10: Energy transition
- 11: Energy efficiency, behavior, and sustainable consumption
- 12: Energy poverty, access, and justice
- 13: Big data and AI for clean energy
- 14: Limitations of models
- 15: Review and summary

5 Real-world assignments:
- 0: IRA emission reduction assessment
- 1: Air quality in China and India
- 2: Energy project economics
- 3: Energy technology and impacts
- 4: Load forecast, energy justice

Contact

Marxe School of Public and International Affairs

Baruch College

City University of New York

135 East 22nd Street, Room 615

New York, NY 10010

Phone: +1 (646) 660-6716

E-mail:

References

He, Gang, Anne-Perrine Avrin, James H. Nelson, Josiah Johnston, Ana Mileva, Jianwei Tian, and Daniel M. Kammen. 2016. “SWITCH-China: A Systems Approach to Decarbonizing China’s Power System.” Enironmental Science and Technology 50 (11): 5467–73. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.6b01345.
He, Gang, Jiang Lin, Froylan Sifuentes, Xu Liu, Nikit Abhyankar, and Amol Phadke. 2020. “Rapid Cost Decrease of Renewables and Storage Accelerates the Decarbonization of China’s Power System.” Nature Communications 11 (1): 2486. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16184-x.
He, Gang, Jiang Lin, Ying Zhang, Wenhua Zhang, Guilherme Larangeira, Chao Zhang, Wei Peng, Manzhi Liu, and Fuqiang Yang. 2020. “Enabling a Rapid and Just Transition Away from Coal in China.” One Earth 3 (2): 187–94. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2020.07.012.
Helveston, John, Gang He, and Michael Davidson. 2022. “Quantifying the Cost Savings of Global Solar Photovoltaic Supply Chains.” Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05316-6.
Li, Bo, Minyou Chen, Ziming Ma, Gang He, Wei Dai, Dongran Liu, Chi Zhang, and Haiwang Zhong. 2022. “Modeling Integrated Power and Transportation Systems: Impacts of Power-to-Gas on the Deep Decarbonization.” IEEE Transactions on Industry Applications 58 (2): 2677–93. https://doi.org/10.1109/TIA.2021.3116916.
Luo, Qian, Fernando Garcia-Menendez, Jiang Lin, Gang He, and Jeremiah X. Johnson. 2023. “Accelerating China’s Power Sector Decarbonization Can Save Lives: Integrating Public Health Goals into Power Sector Planning Decisions.” Environmental Research Letters 18 (10): 104023. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf84b.
Luo, Qian, Fernando Garcia-Menendez, Haozhe Yang, Ranjit Deshmukh, Gang He, Jiang Lin, and Jeremiah X. Johnson. 2023. “The Health and Climate Benefits of Economic Dispatch in China’s Power System.” Environmental Science & Technology 57 (7): 2898–2906. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.2c05663.
Peng, Liqun, Denise L. Mauzerall, Yaofeng D. Zhong, and Gang He. 2023. “Heterogeneous Effects of Battery Storage Deployment Strategies on Decarbonization of Provincial Power Systems in China.” Nature Communications 14 (August): 4858. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-40337-3.
Zhang, Chao, Gang He, Josiah Johnston, and Lijin Zhong. 2021. “Long-Term Transition of China’s Power Sector Under Carbon Neutrality Target and Water Withdrawal Constraint.” Journal of Cleaner Production 329 (December): 129765. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.129765.

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