SWITCH-China: Modeling the Transition of the World’s Largest Power Sector

Gang He

November 13, 2023

China’s power sector

  • ~ 1/4 of global coal consumption
  • ~ 40% of global solar/wind capacity
  • ~ 1/8 of global carbon emission
  • A sector under fast transition
  • Its future with high uncertainties

Challenges

  • High spatial temporal resolution model
  • Data
    • Availability
    • Accessiblity
    • Credability
  • Transparency
  • Comparison

SWITCH-China

Source: He et al. (2016)

SWITCH-China model structure

Learn more: https://www.ganghe.net/research/switch-china-model

Data

  • Generation
    • Technology: solar, wind, hydro, nuclear, coal, gas
    • Wind/solar resources profiles
  • Transmission: planned the UHV lines
  • Demand: future demand projections
  • Load: provincial typical load profiles
  • Costs
    • Capital costs
    • Fuel costs
    • Carbon costs
    • Transmission costs
  • Policy
    • Development targets
    • Carbon neutrality goals
    • Environmental targets

China modules

Adapt to China’s energy policies and priorities

  • Plans: Technological goals and limits
    • Wind/Solar/Offshore wind plans
    • Coal limits
  • Energy water nexus / Multiple sectors
    • Electricity-Carbon-Water
  • Emerging technologies
    • Storage
    • Pumped hydro
    • Offshore wind
    • Hydrogen

Low cost of renewables

Source: He, Lin, Sifuentes, et al. (2020)