Lecture 8 Energy and Climate Change

Gang He

October 17, 2022

Sample analytic questions

• If all fossil plants stop generating from 2023, how that will contribute to the climate mitigation?
  
• What needs to be included in New York State’s scoping plan to achieve goals in the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act?
  
• What level of social cost of carbon should New York State use?
  
• How climate change would affect energy supply and demand?
  

Integrated assessment model

IPCC AR6 impacts

IPCC AR6 mitigation gap

IPCC AR6 mitigation pathways

IPCC AR6 energy systems

IPCC AR6 commercial technology availability

The mitigation wedges

The Mckinsey curve

Social economic impacts

Social cost of carbon

• Marginal cost of carbon
  
• Cost included:
  
  • Net agricultural productivity
    
  • Human health
    
  • Property damage
    
  • Energy system costs
    
• Cost not included:
  
  • Unknown impact: physical, ecological, economic
    
  • Unknown cost: information
    

EPA social cost of carbon

2010 assessment

2015 assessment

NYDEC ‘Value of Carbon’ Guidance

• Carbon dioxide: $125 per ton
  
• Methane: $2,782 per ton
  
• Nitrous oxide: $44,727 per ton

SCC updates

What works what’s not

• Carbon tax vs. subsides
  
• Regulations vs markets
  
• Considering
  
  • Societal acceptance
    
  • Political feasibility

Best practices

• Energy efficiency
  
• Low carbon eco-city
  
• Renewable integration
  
• Sectoral experiences
  
• Policy/technology tools

Climate change affects energy system

Connecting climate and energy models

Summary

• IAM framework and models to analyze energy, emissions, and climate impacts
  
• Understanding the evolution of climate policy instruments
  
• Learn the applicatons and limitations of social cost of carbon
  
• Climate change affects energy supply and demand

References

Carleton, Tamma A, and Solomon M Hsiang. 2016. “Social and Economic Impacts of Climate.” Science 353 (6304): aad9837. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad9837.

Craig, Michael T, Jan Wohland, Laurens P Stoop, Alexander Kies, Bryn Pickering, Hannah C Bloomfield, Jethro Browell, et al. 2022. “Overcoming the Disconnect Between Energy System and Climate Modeling.” Joule. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2022.05.010.

Pacala, Stephen, and Robert Socolow. 2004. “Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies.” Science 305 (5686): 968–72. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1100103.

Rennert, Kevin, Frank Errickson, Brian C Prest, Lisa Rennels, Richard G Newell, William Pizer, Cora Kingdon, et al. 2022. “Comprehensive Evidence Implies a Higher Social Cost of CO2.” Nature, 1–3. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05224-9.

Yalew, Seleshi G, Michelle TH van Vliet, David EHJ Gernaat, Fulco Ludwig, Ariel Miara, Chan Park, Edward Byers, et al. 2020. “Impacts of Climate Change on Energy Systems in Global and Regional Scenarios.” Nature Energy 5 (10): 794–802. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0664-z.