Lecture 3 Climate Impacts and Responses
Gang He
September 18, 2023
A five points “climate haiku”
- It’s warming
- It’s us
- We’re sure
- It’s bad
- We can fix it
Source: Kimberly A Nicholas
Adverse impacts of climate change
Source: IPCC AR6 Synthesis Repoort Figure 1
The impacts are global
Source: IPCC AR6 Synthesis Repoort Figure 2.3.1
Vulnerable population suffers more
Source: IPCC AR6 Synthesis Repoort Figure 2.3.2
Conventional focues
- Ice melting
- Sea level rising
- Extreme weathers
- Floods
- Droughts
Damages to include
- agriculture
- mortality
- energy
- low-risk labor
- high-risk labor
- coastal damages
- property crime
- violent crime
What other damages to include?
Climate damage function
Economic Damage=f(Δtemperature)
- It could be negative or positive
- Integrated Assessment Models/Economic models
- DICE/RICE
- FUND
- PAGE
Climate change and conflicts
Read more: Hsiang, Burke, and Miguel (2013)
Climate change affects energy system
Source: Yalew et al. (2020)
Climate impact to renewable supply-demand match
Source: Liu et al. (2023)
IPAT
I(mpact)=P(opulation)×A(ffluence)×T(echnology)
I(mpact)=P(opulation)×A(ffluence)T(echnology)
- Technology: renewable energy, energy efficiency, innovations
Source: Ehrlich and Holdren (1971)
Kaya identify
F=P×GP×EG×FE
Where:
- F: global CO2 emissions from human sources
- P: global population
- G: world GDP
- E: global energy consumption
And:
- G/P: GDP per capita
- E/G: energy intensity of the GDP
- F/E: emission intensity of energy
Source: Kaya and Yokobori (1997), Kaya Identity: drivers of CO₂ emissions in the World
Climate wedges
Source: Pacala and Socolow (2004)
The Mckinsey cost curve
Source: Mckinsey, GHG Abatement Cost Curves
Social cost of carbon
- Marginal cost of carbon
- Cost included:
- Net agricultural productivity
- Human health
- Property damage
- Energy system costs
- Net agricultural productivity
- Cost not included:
- Unknown impact: physical, ecological, economic
- Unknown cost: information
- Unknown impact: physical, ecological, economic
EPA social cost of carbon
2010 assessment
2015 assessment
Source: EPA
NYDEC ‘Value of Carbon’ Guidance
- Carbon dioxide: $125 per ton
- Methane: $2,782 per ton
- Nitrous oxide: $44,727 per ton
Source: NYDEC
SCC updates
What works what’s not
- Carbon tax vs. subsides
- Regulations vs markets
- Considering
- Societal acceptance
- Political feasibility
- Societal acceptance
Source: Read more: Armitage, Bakhtian, and Jaffe (2023)
Best practices
- Energy efficiency
- Low carbon eco-city
- Renewable integration
- Sectoral experiences
- Policy/technology tools
Policy instruments
Source: Armitage, Bakhtian, and Jaffe (2023)
NYS climate impacts assessment
- Up-to-date projections of future climate conditions in New York State
- Sector-based literature reviews
- In-depth economic impact assessments
- A peer-reviewed technical report that conveys scientific findings
- Summaries and syntheses for a wider audience
- Adaptation strategies and case studies
- Links and references to primary sources for full transparency
An ongoing effort, anything missing?
Source: New York State Climate Impacts Assessment
Fuel for thoughts: grand challenges, huge progress, and grand opportunities
Source: Our World in Data
References
Armitage, Sarah C., Noël Bakhtian, and Adam B. Jaffe. 2023. “Innovation Market Failures and the Design of New Climate Policy Instruments.” Working Paper. Working Paper Series. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w31622.
Carleton, Tamma A, and Solomon M Hsiang. 2016. “Social and Economic Impacts of Climate.” Science 353 (6304): aad9837. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad9837.
Ehrlich, Paul R., and John P. Holdren. 1971. “Impact of Population Growth: Complacency Concerning This Component of Man’s Predicament Is Unjustified and Counterproductive.” Science 171 (3977): 1212–17. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.171.3977.1212.
Hsiang, Solomon M., Marshall Burke, and Edward Miguel. 2013. “Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict.” Science, August. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1235367.
Kaya, Yoichi, and Keiichi Yokobori, eds. 1997. Environment, Energy, and Economy: Strategies for Sustainable. Tokyo: United Nations Univ. https://archive.unu.edu/unupress/unupbooks/uu17ee/uu17ee00.htm.
Liu, Laibao, Gang He, Mengxi Wu, Gang Liu, Haoran Zhang, Ying Chen, Jiashu Shen, and Shuangcheng Li. 2023. “Climate Change Impacts on Planned Supply–Demand Match in Global Wind and Solar Energy Systems.” Nature Energy 8 (8): 870–80. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-023-01304-w.
Neumann, James E., Jacqueline Willwerth, Jeremy Martinich, James McFarland, Marcus C. Sarofim, and Gary Yohe. 2020. “Climate Damage Functions for Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change in the United States.” Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 14 (1): 25–43. https://doi.org/10.1093/reep/rez021.
Pacala, Stephen, and Robert Socolow. 2004. “Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies.” Science 305 (5686): 968–72. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1100103.
Rennert, Kevin, Frank Errickson, Brian C Prest, Lisa Rennels, Richard G Newell, William Pizer, Cora Kingdon, et al. 2022. “Comprehensive Evidence Implies a Higher Social Cost of CO2.” Nature, 1–3. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05224-9.
Valuing Climate Changes: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide. 2017. Washington, D.C.: National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/24651.
Yalew, Seleshi G, Michelle TH van Vliet, David EHJ Gernaat, Fulco Ludwig, Ariel Miara, Chan Park, Edward Byers, et al. 2020. “Impacts of Climate Change on Energy Systems in Global and Regional Scenarios.” Nature Energy 5 (10): 794–802. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0664-z.
Lecture 3 Climate Impacts and Responses Gang He September 18, 2023
Social economic impacts
Source: Carleton and Hsiang (2016)