Lecture 2 Make Sense of Numbers and Fundamentals

Gang He

September 11, 2023

NYC’s daily carbon dioxide emissions as one-tonne spheres

Climate stripes

Carbon budget

Emission and concentration

Get comfortable with units

Foundamental energy units

• Joule: \(J\rightarrow newton \times meter\)
• calorie: \(cal \rightarrow gram \times 1^\circ C\) , \(1 cal=4.184 J\)
  • human daily intake: 1,800-3,000 kcal
• Btu: \(Btu \rightarrow pound \times 1 F\) , \(1 Btu=1,055 J\)
• electricity: \(1 kWh = 3.6 MJ\)

Scale of numbers

Comparing the world’s energy resources

Energy stock and flow

Energy vs. power

Energy vs power

• Energy is the ability to do work. Energy is power integrated over time.
• Basic unit: joule = watt·second

• Power is the rate at which work is done, or energy is transmitted.
• Basic unit: watt = jourle/second

We need to know what we are talking about!

Back-of-the-envelope estimation

Art Rosenfeld

Rosenfeld Effect

Defining a Rosenfeld Plant

• 500 MW
• c.f.: 70%
• T&D losss: 7%

Results:

• 3 TWh/year
  

• 3 MtCO2/year

• NYC electricity use: ~4 TWh/year

Comparing with the Three Gorges Dam

Common sources of energy and climate data

Energy:
- IEA (OECD)
- EIA
- UN
- WB
- BP Statistical Review of World Energy

Climate:
- NASA
- NCAR
- EUCCI
- UNEP
- NOAA

Carbon:
- CDIAC (Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center)
- EDGAR (emissions database for global atmospheric research system)
- Carbon Budget Project
- Carbon Monitor

Data quality

• Availability
  
• Accessibility
  
• Credibility

Comparison, Validation, Verification

Use data tools

• API
  
• Packages
  
• Open-souce tools

Big data and AI era

• Big climate, earth, energy data available due to satellite, use-generated data, devices, sensors, smart meters
• Data driven approaches

Big data doesnot necessarily mean big picture

AI doesnot necessarily mean better insights

GHG effect

Greenhouse Gases(GHG)

GHG	GWP-100	Lifetime (Years)
Carbon Dioxide (CO2)	1	hundreds
Methane (CH4)	29.8±11	11.8 ± 1.8
Nitrous Oxide (N2O)	273 ± 130	109 ± 10
Hydrofluorocarbon-32 (HFC-32)	771 ± 292	5.4 ± 1.1

Other:

• Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)
• PFC-14 (CF4)
• Water vapour

From emissions to warming

Warming since measurement

Warming in context of geological history

Warmer and Warmer

Climate spireal

Temprature anomaly distribution

Human vs nature

Human component is the major driver of warming

Scientific understanding: climate systems

Scientific community and process

• What is the IPCC?
• How does the IPCC select its authors?
• What literature does the IPCC assess?
• How does the IPCC review process work?
• How does the IPCC approve reports?
• How does the IPCC deal with alleged errors?
• What is an Expert Reviewer of IPCC?

Five stages of climate denial

• Stage 1: Deny the Problem Exists
• Stage 2: Deny We’re the Cause
  • Stage 2b: Consensus Denial
• Stage 3: Deny It’s a Problem
  
• Stage 4: Deny We can Solve It
  
• Stage 5: It’s too Late

A five points “climate haiku”

1. It’s warming
2. It’s us
3. We’re sure
4. It’s bad
5. We can fix it

References

Fridley, David, Nina Z Khanna, Nan Zhou, and Michael McNeil. 2016. “Impacts of China’s 2010 to 2013 Mandatory Product Energy Efficiency Standards: A Retrospective and Prospective Look.” In. ACEEE. https://www.aceee.org/files/proceedings/2016/data/papers/5_131.pdf.

Hansen, James, Makiko Sato, and Reto Ruedy. 2012. “Perception of Climate Change.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109 (37): E2415–23. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1205276109.

Hermann, Weston A. 2006. “Quantifying Global Exergy Resources.” Energy 31 (12): 1685–1702. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0360544205001805.

Koomey, Jonathan, Hashem Akbari, Carl Blumstein, Marilyn Brown, Richard Brown, Chris Calwell, Sheryl Carter, et al. 2010. “Defining a Standard Metric for Electricity Savings.” Environmental Research Letters 5 (1): 014017. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/5/1/014017.

Koomey, Jonathan, and Ian Monroe. 2022. Solving Climate Change: A Guide for Learners and Leaders. IOP Publishing. https://iopscience.iop.org/book/mono/978-0-7503-4032-8.

Macknick, Jordan. 2011. “Energy and CO2 Emission Data Uncertainties.” Carbon Management 2 (2): 189–205. https://doi.org/10.4155/cmt.11.10.