Bombing in Vetnam – War and Development

Author

Gang He

Published

February 11, 2025

Melissa Dell

  • Harvard Professor of Economics
  • Recipant of Clark Medal
  • Economic growth and political economy
    • Poverty
    • Trade-induced job loss on crime
    • U.S. foreign intervention
    • Weather on economic growth

Bombing strategy in Vietnam

  • Discontinuities in U.S. strategies employed during the Vietnam War to estimate their causal impacts.
  • Rounding thresholds in an algorithm used to target air strikes
  • Bombing increased the military and political activities of the communist insurgency, weakened local governance, and reduced noncommunist civic engagement.
  • Spatial discontinuity across neighboring military regions that pursued different counterinsurgency strategies.
  • A strategy emphasizing overwhelming firepower plausibly increased insurgent attacks and worsened attitudes toward the U.S. and South Vietnamese government, relative to a more hearts-and-minds-oriented approach.

Thoughts for evaluation

  • Natural experiments
  • Causal identification strategies
  • Regression discountinuity

References

  • Dell M, Querubin P. Nation Building Through Foreign Intervention: Evidence from Discontinuities in Military Strategies. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 2018;133:701–64. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx037.