Lecture 6 Energy Demand

Gang He

September 26, 2022

Sample analytic questions

  • What will be the load in the NYISO service area in 2030?
  • How EV will change the load?
  • What drives energy demand growth?
  • How climate change changes energy demand?
  • How to make reasonal assumptions about appliances stock turn over?

Germany energy demand

Top-down vs bottom-up


\(I=P\times A\times T\)

\(I\) = Impact
\(P\) = Population
\(A\) = Aflluence
\(T\) = Technology


Economy (GDP)

Energy intensity


EV and load

Energy efficiency - “First Fuel”

Adoption curve


Limit to growth, degrowth, green growth

Decent living

Human behavior - demand response

Human behavior intervention

Load forecasting

Load forecast


  • Energy demand is shaped by dynamic factors: populations, GDP, technology, regulation, and human behavior
  • Understanding those drivers will help us learn the magnitude and shape of our demand
  • Load forecast integrates all insights to the show


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Ehrlich, Paul R, and John P Holdren. 1971. “Impact of Population Growth: Complacency Concerning This Component of Man’s Predicament Is Unjustified and Counterproductive.” Science 171 (3977): 1212–17. https://doi.org/10.1097/00006254-197111000-00014.
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IEA. 2021. “Net Zero by 2050.” International Energy Agency.
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Swan, Lukas G., and V. Ismet Ugursal. 2009. “Modeling of End-Use Energy Consumption in the Residential Sector: A Review of Modeling Techniques.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 13 (8): 1819–35. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2008.09.033.