Energy Systems Analysis - Lecture 6 Energy Demand

Sample analytic questions

What will be the load in the NYISO service area in 2030?
How EV will change the load?
What drives energy demand growth?
How climate change changes energy demand?
How to make reasonal assumptions about appliances stock turn over?

Germany energy demand

Top-down vs bottom-up

IPAT

\(I=P\times A\times T\)

Where,
\(I\) = Impact
\(P\) = Population
\(A\) = Aflluence
\(T\) = Technology

Population

Economy (GDP)

Energy intensity

Electrification

EV and load

Energy efficiency - “First Fuel”

Adoption curve

Rebound

Limit to growth, degrowth, green growth

Decent living

Human behavior - demand response

Human behavior intervention

Load forecasting

Load forecast

Summary

Energy demand is shaped by dynamic factors: populations, GDP, technology, regulation, and human behavior
Understanding those drivers will help us learn the magnitude and shape of our demand
Load forecast integrates all insights to the show

References

Borenstein, Severin. 2015. “A Microeconomic Framework for Evaluating Energy Efficiency Rebound and Some Implications.” The Energy Journal 36 (1). https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.36.1.1.

Brockway, Paul E, Steve Sorrell, Gregor Semieniuk, Matthew Kuperus Heun, and Victor Court. 2021. “Energy Efficiency and Economy-Wide Rebound Effects: A Review of the Evidence and Its Implications.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 141: 110781. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2021.110781.

Ehrlich, Paul R, and John P Holdren. 1971. “Impact of Population Growth: Complacency Concerning This Component of Man’s Predicament Is Unjustified and Counterproductive.” Science 171 (3977): 1212–17. https://doi.org/10.1097/00006254-197111000-00014.

Hong, Tao, and Shu Fan. 2016. “Probabilistic Electric Load Forecasting: A Tutorial Review.” International Journal of Forecasting 32 (3): 914–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.11.011.

IEA. 2021. “Net Zero by 2050.” International Energy Agency.

Lin, Jiang, Gang He, and Alexandria Yuan. 2016. “Economic Rebalancing and Electricity Demand in China.” The Electricity Journal 29 (3): 48–54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tej.2016.03.010.

Meadows, Donella H, Dennis L Meadows, Jørgen Randers, and William W Behrens. 2018. “The Limits to Growth.” In Green Planet Blues, 25–29. Routledge.

Rao, Narasimha D, and Jihoon Min. 2018. “Decent Living Standards: Material Prerequisites for Human Wellbeing.” Social Indicators Research 138 (1): 225–44. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-017-1650-0.

Swan, Lukas G., and V. Ismet Ugursal. 2009. “Modeling of End-Use Energy Consumption in the Residential Sector: A Review of Modeling Techniques.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 13 (8): 1819–35. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2008.09.033.