Lecture 17 Energy Transition

Gang He

November 2, 2023

Sample analytic questions

  • What are the drivers of energy transition?
  • How should each country think/design/implement its energy transition?
  • How to frame the role of different technologies in energy transition?
  • How geo-politics, wars, and pandemic impact the energy in transiton?

Transition history

RE > coal: a milestone

U.S. power-sector half-way to zero

Soft path vs. hard path

Central, large scale, incresing supply/demand
Fossil, nuclear

Flexible, resilient, sustainable, and benign
Renewable energy, energy efficiency, matching in scale and quality to the end use need

Drivers of energy transition

  • Demand
  • Supply
  • Climate change
  • Environmental pollution
  • Energy security
  • Economics

100% reneables: a debate

100% renewables (wind, water, solar) for all purposes?

  • Resources, technology, economic ready
  • Huge benefits

100% renewable not viable/necesssary?

  • Modeling errors
  • Implausible assumptions
  • Need better modeling

Energy transition is difficult, broad technology portfolio is needed

Changing perspectives of renewables

Energy Transition: The German Energiewende

  • Fighting climate change
  • Reducing energy imports
  • Stimulating technology innovation and the green economy
  • Reducing and eliminating the risks of nuclear power
  • Energy security
  • Strengthening local economies and providing social justice

Germany: role of nuclear?

Three operating plants, total capacity 4055MW, in 2022, scheduled to shut down by end of 2022, and were extended to 2024.

The U.S.: net zero America

U.S.: IRA

Denmark: Distributed generation (CHP and wind)

China: the scale and scope

China: phasing out coal

Phasing out coal yields huge (water savings, avoided pre-matual death, and health) co-benefits, however, need to address employment impact and welfare redistribution

Bazil: role of hydro and biofuel

Africa: the fogotten billion

Ukraine crisis: an accerlerator?

Impact to emissions

Summary

  • Diverse factors that drive energy transition
  • Common and differentiated solutions to energy
  • Leverage the advantages
  • Addressing uncertainties: geopolitics, wars, pandemic, and more

References

Clack, Christopher T. M., Staffan A. Qvist, Jay Apt, Morgan Bazilian, Adam R. Brandt, Ken Caldeira, Steven J. Davis, et al. 2017. “Evaluation of a Proposal for Reliable Low-Cost Grid Power with 100% Wind, Water, and Solar.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, June, 201610381. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1610381114.
Cui, Ryna Yiyun, Nathan Hultman, Diyang Cui, Haewon McJeon, Sha Yu, Morgan R Edwards, Arijit Sen, et al. 2021. “A Plant-by-Plant Strategy for High-Ambition Coal Power Phaseout in China.” Nature Communications 12 (1): 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21786-0.
He, Gang, Jiang Lin, Ying Zhang, Wenhua Zhang, Guilherme Larangeira, Chao Zhang, Wei Peng, Manzhi Liu, and Fuqiang Yang. 2020. “Enabling a Rapid and Just Transition Away from Coal in China.” One Earth 3 (2): 187–94. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2020.07.012.
Jacobson, Mark Z., Mark A. Delucchi, Mary A. Cameron, and Bethany A. Frew. 2015. “Low-Cost Solution to the Grid Reliability Problem with 100% Penetration of Intermittent Wind, Water, and Solar for All Purposes.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112 (49): 15060–65. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1510028112.
Lovins, Amory B. 1976. “Energy Strategy: The Road Not Taken.” Foreign Affairs 55: 65. https://rmi.org/insight/energy-strategy-the-road-not-taken.
Mulugetta, Yacob, Youba Sokona, Philipp A Trotter, Samuel Fankhauser, Jessica Omukuti, Lucas Somavilla Croxatto, Bjarne Steffen, et al. 2022. “Africa Needs Context-Relevant Evidence to Shape Its Clean Energy Future.” Nature Energy, 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-022-01152-0.