Lecture 13 Energy Demand

Gang He

October 19, 2023

Sample analytic questions

  • What will be the load in the NYISO service area in 2030?
  • How EV will change the load?
  • What drives energy demand growth?
  • How climate change affects energy demand?
  • How to make reasonal assumptions about appliances stock turn over?

Germany energy demand

Top-down vs bottom-up

IPAT

\(I=P\times A\times T\)

Where,
\(I\) = Impact
\(P\) = Population
\(A\) = Aflluence
\(T\) = Technology

Population

Economy (GDP)

Energy intensity

Electrification

EV and load

Energy efficiency - “First Fuel”

Adoption curve

Rebound

Limit to growth, degrowth, green growth

Decent living

Human behavior - demand response

Energy savings across behavioural interventions implemented in the United States

Load forecasting

Load forecast

Summary

  • Energy demand is shaped by dynamic factors: populations, GDP, technology, regulation, and human behavior
  • Understanding those drivers will help us learn the magnitude and profile of our demand
  • Load forecast integrates all insights to the show

References

Borenstein, Severin. 2015. “A Microeconomic Framework for Evaluating Energy Efficiency Rebound and Some Implications.” The Energy Journal 36 (1). https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.36.1.1.
Brockway, Paul E, Steve Sorrell, Gregor Semieniuk, Matthew Kuperus Heun, and Victor Court. 2021. “Energy Efficiency and Economy-Wide Rebound Effects: A Review of the Evidence and Its Implications.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 141: 110781. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2021.110781.
Ehrlich, Paul R, and John P Holdren. 1971. “Impact of Population Growth: Complacency Concerning This Component of Man’s Predicament Is Unjustified and Counterproductive.” Science 171 (3977): 1212–17. https://doi.org/10.1097/00006254-197111000-00014.
Hong, Tao, and Shu Fan. 2016. “Probabilistic Electric Load Forecasting: A Tutorial Review.” International Journal of Forecasting 32 (3): 914–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.11.011.
IEA. 2021. “Net Zero by 2050.” International Energy Agency.
Lin, Jiang, Gang He, and Alexandria Yuan. 2016. “Economic Rebalancing and Electricity Demand in China.” The Electricity Journal 29 (3): 48–54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tej.2016.03.010.
Meadows, Donella H, Dennis L Meadows, Jørgen Randers, and William W Behrens. 2018. “The Limits to Growth.” In Green Planet Blues, 25–29. Routledge.
Rao, Narasimha D, and Jihoon Min. 2018. “Decent Living Standards: Material Prerequisites for Human Wellbeing.” Social Indicators Research 138 (1): 225–44. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-017-1650-0.
Swan, Lukas G., and V. Ismet Ugursal. 2009. “Modeling of End-Use Energy Consumption in the Residential Sector: A Review of Modeling Techniques.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 13 (8): 1819–35. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2008.09.033.