Energy, Climate, and Society – Lecture 3 Climate Fundamentals and Impacts

A five points “climate haiku”

It’s warming
It’s us
We’re sure
It’s bad
We can fix it

Five stages of climate denial

Stage 1: Deny the Problem Exists
Stage 2: Deny We’re the Cause
- Stage 2b: Consensus Denial
Stage 3: Deny It’s a Problem
Stage 4: Deny We can Solve It
Stage 5: It’s too Late

Climate and Weather

Climate is the average weather conditions of a region over a long period of time, usually at least 30 years. Weather refers to short-term atmospheric conditions. Climate change refers to long-term changes.

Weather refers to short-term atmospheric conditions. Climate change refers to long-term changes.

GHG effect

Greenhouse Gases(GHG)

GHG	GWP-100	Lifetime (Years)
Carbon Dioxide (CO2)	1	hundreds
Methane (CH4)	29.8±11	11.8 ± 1.8
Nitrous Oxide (N2O)	273 ± 130	109 ± 10
Hydrofluorocarbon-32 (HFC-32)	771 ± 292	5.4 ± 1.1

Other GHG:

Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)
PFC-14 (CF4)
Water vapour

From emissions to warming

Warming since measurement

Warming in context of geological history

Warmer and Warmer

Climate spireal

Temprature anomaly distribution

Human vs nature

Human component is the major driver of warming

Scientific understanding: climate systems

Scientific community and process

What is the IPCC?
How does the IPCC select its authors?
What literature does the IPCC assess?
How does the IPCC review process work?
How does the IPCC approve reports?
How does the IPCC deal with alleged errors?
What is an Expert Reviewer of IPCC?

Adverse impacts of climate change

The impacts are global

Vulnerable population suffers more

Conventional focues

Ice melting
Sea level rising
Extreme weathers
- Floods
- Droughts

Damages to include

agriculture
mortality
energy
low-risk labor
high-risk labor
coastal damages
property crime
violent crime

What other damages to include?

Social economic impacts

Social cost of carbon

Marginal cost of carbon
Cost included:
- Net agricultural productivity
- Human health
- Property damage
- Energy system costs
Cost not included:
- Unknown impact: physical, ecological, economic
- Unknown cost: information

U.S. southern states suffer more

The poor will get damages more

Climate damage function

\(Economic\ Damage=f(\Delta temperature)\)

It could be negative or positive
Integrated Assessment Models/Economic models
- DICE/RICE
- FUND
- PAGE

Climate change and conflicts

Climate change affects energy system

Climate impact to renewable supply-demand match

State of the Climate 2025

NYS climate impacts assessment

NYS assessment summary findings

Climate change is affecting New York State now and is projected to continue to change and affect every region of the state.
Even under a lower-emissions scenario, climate change impacts across New York State will be substantial.
The frequency and intensity of extreme events such as heavy rainstorms, seasonal droughts, and heat waves are projected to increase.
Sea level along New York State’s coastline has risen almost 1 foot in the past century and is projected to increase by another 1 to 2 feet by midcentury.
Climate hazards often do not occur in isolation, and impacts can be compounded when multiple events happen near each other in time or space.
New York State residents and communities that are marginalized or suffer from legacies of displacement or discrimination are more vulnerable to climate impacts.
Climate change will introduce new risks and opportunities into nearly every dimension of New York State’s economy.
Climate change poses escalating health and safety risks for the people of New York State, including risks to mental health.
Infrastructure provides vital services across New York State but is vulnerable to climate-related impacts.
Every community and every sector in New York State has the potential to contribute to innovative climate solutions that reduce vulnerabilities, foster resilience, and enhance equity.

Grand challenges, huge progress, and grand opportunities

References

Carleton, Tamma A, and Solomon M Hsiang. 2016. “Social and Economic Impacts of Climate.” Science 353 (6304): aad9837. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad9837.

Hansen, James, Makiko Sato, and Reto Ruedy. 2012. “Perception of Climate Change.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109 (37): E2415–23. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1205276109.

Hsiang, Solomon M., Marshall Burke, and Edward Miguel. 2013. “Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict.” Science, August. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1235367.

Hsiang, Solomon, Robert Kopp, Amir Jina, James Rising, Michael Delgado, Shashank Mohan, D. J. Rasmussen, et al. 2017. “Estimating Economic Damage from Climate Change in the United States.” Science 356 (6345): 1362–69. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aal4369.

Koomey, Jonathan, and Ian Monroe. 2022. Solving Climate Change: A Guide for Learners and Leaders. IOP Publishing. https://iopscience.iop.org/book/mono/978-0-7503-4032-8.

Liu, Laibao, Gang He, Mengxi Wu, Gang Liu, Haoran Zhang, Ying Chen, Jiashu Shen, and Shuangcheng Li. 2023. “Climate Change Impacts on Planned Supply–Demand Match in Global Wind and Solar Energy Systems.” Nature Energy 8 (8): 870–80. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-023-01304-w.

Neumann, James E., Jacqueline Willwerth, Jeremy Martinich, James McFarland, Marcus C. Sarofim, and Gary Yohe. 2020. “Climate Damage Functions for Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change in the United States.” Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 14 (1): 25–43. https://doi.org/10.1093/reep/rez021.

Valuing Climate Changes: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide. 2017. Washington, D.C.: National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/24651.

Yalew, Seleshi G, Michelle TH van Vliet, David EHJ Gernaat, Fulco Ludwig, Ariel Miara, Chan Park, Edward Byers, et al. 2020. “Impacts of Climate Change on Energy Systems in Global and Regional Scenarios.” Nature Energy 5 (10): 794–802. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0664-z.