Energy Systems Analysis - Lecture 10 Energy Transition

Sample analytic questions

What are the drivers of energy transition?
How should each country think/design/implement its energy transition?
How to frame the role of different technologies in energy transition?
How geo-politics, wars, and pandemic impact the energy in transiton?

Transition history

RE > coal: a milestone

U.S. power-sector half-way to zero

Soft path vs. hard path

Central, large scale, incresing supply/demand
Fossil, nuclear

Flexible, resilient, sustainable, and benign
Renewable energy, energy efficiency, matching in scale and quality to the end use need

Drivers of energy transition

Demand
Supply
Climate change
Environmental pollution
Energy security
Economics

100% reneables: a debate

100% renewables (wind, water, solar) for all purposes?

Resources, technology, economic ready
Huge benefits

100% renewable not viable/necesssary?

Modeling errors
Implausible assumptions
Need better modeling

Energy transition is difficult, broad technology portfolio is needed

Changing perspectives of renewables

Energy Transition: The German Energiewende

Fighting climate change
Reducing energy imports
Stimulating technology innovation and the green economy
Reducing and eliminating the risks of nuclear power
Energy security
Strengthening local economies and providing social justice

Germany: role of nuclear?

Three operating plants, total capacity 4055MW, in 2022, scheduled to shut down by end of 2022, and were extended to 2024.

The U.S.: net zero America

U.S.: IRA

Denmark: Distributed generation (CHP and wind)

China: the scale and scope

China: phasing out coal

Phasing out coal yields huge (water savings, avoided pre-matual death, and health) co-benefits, however, need to address employment impact and welfare redistribution

Bazil: role of hydro and biofuel

Africa: the fogotten billion

Ukraine crisis: an accerlerator?

Impact to emissions

Summary

Diverse factors that drive energy transition
Common and differentiated solutions to energy
Leverage the advantages
Addressing uncertainties: geopolitics, wars, pandemic, and more

References

Clack, Christopher T. M., Staffan A. Qvist, Jay Apt, Morgan Bazilian, Adam R. Brandt, Ken Caldeira, Steven J. Davis, et al. 2017. “Evaluation of a Proposal for Reliable Low-Cost Grid Power with 100% Wind, Water, and Solar.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, June, 201610381. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1610381114.

Cui, Ryna Yiyun, Nathan Hultman, Diyang Cui, Haewon McJeon, Sha Yu, Morgan R Edwards, Arijit Sen, et al. 2021. “A Plant-by-Plant Strategy for High-Ambition Coal Power Phaseout in China.” Nature Communications 12 (1): 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21786-0.

He, Gang, Jiang Lin, Ying Zhang, Wenhua Zhang, Guilherme Larangeira, Chao Zhang, Wei Peng, Manzhi Liu, and Fuqiang Yang. 2020. “Enabling a Rapid and Just Transition Away from Coal in China.” One Earth 3 (2): 187–94. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2020.07.012.

Jacobson, Mark Z., Mark A. Delucchi, Mary A. Cameron, and Bethany A. Frew. 2015. “Low-Cost Solution to the Grid Reliability Problem with 100% Penetration of Intermittent Wind, Water, and Solar for All Purposes.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112 (49): 15060–65. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1510028112.

Lovins, Amory B. 1976. “Energy Strategy: The Road Not Taken.” Foreign Affairs 55: 65. https://rmi.org/insight/energy-strategy-the-road-not-taken.

Mulugetta, Yacob, Youba Sokona, Philipp A Trotter, Samuel Fankhauser, Jessica Omukuti, Lucas Somavilla Croxatto, Bjarne Steffen, et al. 2022. “Africa Needs Context-Relevant Evidence to Shape Its Clean Energy Future.” Nature Energy, 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-022-01152-0.