Lecture 22 Review and Summary

Gang He

November 30, 2023

Energy grand challenges: net-zero

A five points “climate haiku”

1. It’s warming
2. It’s us
3. We’re sure
4. It’s bad
5. We can fix it

Energy vs power

• Energy is the ability to do work. Energy is power integrated over time.
• Basic unit: joule = watt·second

• Power is the rate at which work is done, or energy is transmitted.
• Basic unit: watt = jourle/second

We need to know what we are talking about!

Common sources of energy and climate data

Energy:
- IEA (OECD)
- EIA
- UN
- WB
- BP Statistical Review of World Energy

Climate:
- NASA
- NCAR
- EUCCI
- UNEP
- NOAA

Carbon:
- CDIAC (Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center)
- EDGAR (emissions database for global atmospheric research system)
- Carbon Budget Project
- Carbon Monitor

Human component is the major driver of warming

Social cost of carbon

• Marginal cost of carbon
  
• Cost included:
  
  • Net agricultural productivity
    
  • Human health
    
  • Property damage
    
  • Energy system costs
    
• Cost not included:
  
  • Unknown impact: physical, ecological, economic
    
  • Unknown cost: information
    

Kaya identify

\(F=P \times \frac{G}{P} \times \frac{E}{G} \times \frac{F}{E}\)

Where:

• F: global CO2 emissions from human sources
• P: global population
• G: world GDP
• E: global energy consumption

And:

• G/P: GDP per capita
• E/G: energy intensity of the GDP
• F/E: emission intensity of energy

Risks and resilience

Energy systems

Energy project economics

• NPV, discounting, LCOE, learning rate

• Project economics is useful for basic cost-benefit analysis
  

• Getting the price (discounting) right
  

• Understanding technology dynamics will help to model future projections
  

• Aware of the limitations

Thermodynamics

• Thermodynamic efficiency
  
• Comparing different technologies
  
• Thermodynamics provides physic limits

Brayton cycle vs. Rankine cycle

Brayton Cycle	Rankine Cycle
Jet, Gas turbine	Steam turbine
Open	Open/closed circuits
Working fluid in gaseous phase	Working fluid phase change

Defining a Rosenfeld Plant

• 500 MW
• c.f.: 70%
• T&D losss: 7%

Results:

• 3 TWh/year
  

• 3 MtCO2/year

• NYC electricity use: ~4 TWh/year

P-N Junction

Wind

\(P=\frac{1}{2}\rho \pi r^2 v^3\)

Where,
\(\rho\) = Air Density (\(kg/m^3\))
\(A\) = Swept Area (m2) = \(\pi r^2\)
\(v\) = Wind Speed (m/s)
\(P\) = Power (W)

Nuclear

Nuclear fission

Nuclear fussion

Hydro

Hydropower

Pumped storage hydropower (PSH)

\(E=\rho mg(h_2-h_1)\)

Energy demand

• Energy demand is shaped by dynamic factors: populations, GDP, technology, regulation, and human behavior
  
• Understanding those drivers will help us learn the magnitude and profile of our demand
  
• Load forecast integrates all insights to the show

Energy efficiency

• There are barriers for energy efficiency and inforamtion and standards can help address the energy efficiency gap
  
• Human behavior is complicated, and understanding it will help us to design policy
  
• Rebound is real but might be overplayed, rebound could be good if improve welfare
  
• Sustainable consumption and production within the limit

Energy access and energy justice

• Electricity/energy access is fundamental to other modern services: education, health, and information
  
• Energy access also has gender equity, health cobenefits, and other implications
  
• Energy justice is important to achieve just transition
  
• An reflection on our approaches to energy justice

Energy, environment, and human health

• Environmental and health impacts are the externalities of energy systems
  
• Energy-air-pollution-human health framework of analysis
  
• Energy-water-carbon nexus
  
• System impacts show the constraint in systems modeling

Energy transition

• Diverse factors that drive energy transition
  
• Common and differentiated solutions to energy
  
• Leverage the advantages
  
• Addressing uncertainties: geopolitics, wars, pandemic, and more

Power sector decarbonization

• Power sector’s central role in decarbonization
  
• Capacity expansion model to analyze the optimized investment decisions
  
• Decisions in the real world is much more complicated
  
• Emerging trends in the power sector

Big data and AI

• AI and big data has transformed how we live, and how can we save the planet
  
• AI does not automatic add new insights, but it provides powerful tools to analyze increasingly available big data
  
• Learning those new tools and skills becomes necessary to work in the field
  
• The potential of using AI/big data to analyze our understanding of energy supply/demand and human behavior is enomorous.

LCA

• System thinking and LCA thinking
  
• LCA could offer insights
  
• Learning those new tools and skills to do basic LCA
  
• LCA is a system think to address energy and climate challenges.

Uncertainies and limitation

• Know the limitation of models
  
• Use model appropriately
  
• Interpret/communicate the results effectively
  
• Models for social good

References

IEA. 2021. “Net Zero by 2050.” International Energy Agency.

Kaya, Yoichi, and Keiichi Yokobori, eds. 1997. Environment, Energy, and Economy: Strategies for Sustainable. Tokyo: United Nations Univ. https://archive.unu.edu/unupress/unupbooks/uu17ee/uu17ee00.htm.

Koomey, Jonathan, Hashem Akbari, Carl Blumstein, Marilyn Brown, Richard Brown, Chris Calwell, Sheryl Carter, et al. 2010. “Defining a Standard Metric for Electricity Savings.” Environmental Research Letters 5 (1): 014017. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/5/1/014017.

Macknick, Jordan. 2011. “Energy and CO2 Emission Data Uncertainties.” Carbon Management 2 (2): 189–205. https://doi.org/10.4155/cmt.11.10.